Statistics shmastistics

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Statistics shmastistics

Post  thematthew on Mon Apr 01, 2013 5:15 pm

So... Derpy's Lightning is crazy-go-nuts. Seriously. Here is a quick statistical breakdown:
Build:

[+3] Critfisher – Standard Utility
Choose one;
A) Roll two dice of your choice from amongst d8s, d10s and d12s (you could choose to roll both dice from one of these types, or a mix from amongst these types).
B) Pay 2 pips. If you do, roll five dice of your choice from amongst d8s, d10s and d12s (you could choose to roll all five from one of these types, or a mix from amongst these types).
[-6] Daggerstorm - Standard Attack
Roll d12s until you either get a result of 3 or lower or have rolled 5 times. Deal damage to target creature equal to the total die results you rolled this way.
[-9] Call Lightning - Standard Attack
Deal 3d12 damage to target creature, and 1d12 damage to each creature adjacent to it.
[-17] It’s Over! - Standard Attack [Created by Masterweaver]
When you use this talent, choose one;
A) Deal 7d12 damage to target creature.
B) Deal 3d12 damage to up to six creatures.
[-10] Royal Command - Standard Utility
You and up to four allies can take a Standard Action. If that action deals damage, it deals 1d8 additional damage.

So, in this build you just do a 5 die critfisher every turn. You gain 1 pip and have 5 1/12 chances to do a free talent at random. There are two options in this case which are 'not good' being Critfisher (Must spend 2 pips to gain the 41.7% chance of getting one free move instead of a 16.7% chance) or Daggerstorm (based solely on a 25% chance of not getting any more dice with each die.) So, you have a 41.7% chance of getting a free move, which has a 20% chance of being It's Over (58.3% chance of continuing combo), or Call Lightning (33.3%), or Critfisher (41.7%/16.7%), or Daggerstorm (41.7% if none of the 1st 4 dice are 3 or less), and finally Royal Command -> Critfisher (41.7% and your friends actually get to do something in this fight).

This analysis doesn't even look at the possibility to get multiple free moves (every single move on this list has a chance of giving you more than 1 move, in fact there is only 1 move where you can't get 5 free moves) and seriously that's not cool.
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Re: Statistics shmastistics

Post  Stairc -Dan Felder on Mon Apr 01, 2013 5:26 pm

Right. So every turn you have about (not precisely) a 42% chance of triggering a random move.

Of that 42% you also have a 20% chance of fizzling by hitting another crit fisher. This isn't entirely a fizzle, you do gain another chance of a special (you still need to pay the 1 pip to roll the five dice of course), but it's pretty terrible so we'll count it as a fizzle, as you're getting the effects of a +1 talent but have to actually spend a pip to do it.

So really that's about a 33.6% chance of these specials triggering. To continue the math, add up all the expected results of the cool combat talents, divide by 4 to find the average and then multiply by 33.6%. That should give you the end result.

This is noticeably over the curve, sure, and the real culprit is the "roll five dice" option of crit fisher. I haven't fully done the math as to how much further having It's Over weights this above the curve of course, but as it's only going to happen 1/5 times even after the special is triggered - it's not as large an issue as it might otherwise be.

The real culprit here is Critfisher, a combat talent *so* popular that I really don't want to cut out its roll 5 dice version even with this overpowered build in mind. We'll probably have to bite the bullet sooner or later, but for now people are getting to enjoy it at least a little longer.

The real question here of course is how much It's Over weights the average expected result by. If it's monstrous, then we can deal with it.
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Re: Statistics shmastistics

Post  thematthew on Mon Apr 01, 2013 5:42 pm

How the hell do you count Critfisher as a fizzle? If you get Critfisher you spend 2 pips (not 1 by the by) to get 5 dice. That's a 20% chance to just reroll for 2 pips. Like I said, it is one of the worst options.

So, what you have is this:
41.7% chance for:
20% chance of spend 2 pips and try again
20% chance of try again and gain a pip
20% chance of 7d12 damage with a 58.3% chance of going again
20% chance of 3d12 damage + 1d12 damage to adjacent targets with a 33.3% chance of going again
20% chance of roll up to 5 d12s, deal that much damage and still have the same chance of going again.

So, thats 3 5/12 or higher chances to keep going once, 1 1/3 chance to keep going once, and a really difficult to actually statistically determine chance to keep going once.

This doesn't even take into account the fact that you could have traits, like unacceptable and fool me twice, to improve your odds dramatically.

(Seriously once you get both you just go straight to ridiculous if the fight isn't over by turn 2)
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Re: Statistics shmastistics

Post  Stairc -Dan Felder on Mon Apr 01, 2013 5:55 pm

thematthew wrote:How the hell do you count Critfisher as a fizzle?

Because...

thematthew wrote:If you get Critfisher you spend 2 pips (not 1 by the by) to get 5 dice. That's a 20% chance to just reroll for 2 pips. Like I said, it is one of the worst options.

There we go. Thanks for fixing that it's 2 pips, not 1 (typos are typos). Getting a 'free' talent doesn't mean much when you need to spend 2 pips to get the effects of a +1 power. This is definitely a net loss. Especially since you are likely to not crit when you roll 5d12. When you have a 20% chance of getting Crit Fisher and choose to spend 2 pips to roll again then don't trigger any special at all... Your 12 crit just cost you 2 pips for no gain. The ability of it to have a likely downside is a negative, the ability of it to trigger a great crit is a positive. It's not a strict fizzle, but it's close to thinking of it as one for simplicity's sake.

The math you've provided below does not address the question. Critfisher is certainly above the curve with its roll-five-dice incarnation. However you embarked on this journey to demonstrate that "It's Over" is the problem. When are you going to do that?
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Re: Statistics shmastistics

Post  thematthew on Mon Apr 01, 2013 5:59 pm

Damnit no. I embarked on this to prove that Derpy's Lightning is the problem. It's Over isn't an issue unless DL exists as is, simple as that.

You aren't even using your pips for anything but Critfisher anyway, so 'oh noes my pips!'

Also, quick fix to the Daggerstorm problem, replace it with Pincer Maneuver.
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Re: Statistics shmastistics

Post  Stairc -Dan Felder on Mon Apr 01, 2013 6:02 pm

Critfisher's 5 dice has similar problems using other awesome 12 specials. If Derpy's Lightning is the real problem, why not try the math again without Critfisher?
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Re: Statistics shmastistics

Post  thematthew on Mon Apr 01, 2013 6:09 pm

You are correct in that it doesn't work without the 5 die critfisher, however as you previously stated it is
a combat talent *so* popular that I really don't want to cut out its roll 5 dice version even with this overpowered build in mind.

All you really have to do is limit Derpy's Lightning. The rest of the specials don't have the same escalate into infinity problem that DL has. Hell, if you limit Critfisher's 5 die to d8s and d10s it kinda solves the problem. The real issue is that there does exist a build with an unacceptably high chance to just auto-end the fight on turn 1. I'm not going to say that any chance of that is completely unacceptable, just because then you can't have any form of recursive specials, but seriously that's that.
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Re: Statistics shmastistics

Post  Stairc -Dan Felder on Mon Apr 01, 2013 6:12 pm

The existence of the random-talent-derp build is very popular too... And I've seen amazing things done with Be Prepared and critfisher even after I fixed the problem with King of Fools.

Hence something certainly needs a fix. I'm just not sure where the best fix would come from yet.
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Re: Statistics shmastistics

Post  thematthew on Mon Apr 01, 2013 6:16 pm

Being someone who is actually playing a Critfisher + Be Prepared build, it really isn't that big of an issue with any real consistency.

Honestly, if you just rewrote Critfisher as:


[+3] Critfisher – Standard Utility
Choose one;
A) Roll two dice of your choice from amongst d8s, d10s and d12s (you could choose to roll both dice from one of these types, or a mix from amongst these types).
B) Pay 2 pips. If you do, roll five dice of your choice from amongst d8s and d10s (you could choose to roll all five from one of these types, or a mix from amongst these types).

It could very well end a good chunk of the madness.
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Re: Statistics shmastistics

Post  Stairc -Dan Felder on Mon Apr 01, 2013 6:17 pm

Very good point. It would look a lot like a typo but it might well be the slickest fix. I'll run it by the other developers, thanks for the suggestion.
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